American ground forces are mustering in the Middle East. God bless them, they are the best on the planet. But despite their formidable capabilities don’t for a minute think their Iran mission is going to be fast or easy. By the way what is their mission? To force open the Strait of Hormuz? Regime change? Making Iran safe for the son of the old Shah? What about the nukes? The missiles? Would a ceasefire and a never-mind work?
What seems to be going on in the U.S.+Israel versus Iran+the remnants of Hezbollah+what’s left of the Houthis War?
President Trump is no longer in control.
The ghosts of the Iranian regime have suffered grievous losses. They have seen huge swaths of their military industrial complex reduced to rubble. They no longer have any defense against our air power. Their Navy is in ruins. Their leadership has been systematically and serially eliminated. Then why do I feel such unease about this war’s duration and outcome?
Yes, it is true that between our Operation Epic Fury naval armada, the 2nd Marine Expeditionary Unit and the storied 82nd Airborne Division’s 1st Combat Brigade Team, we now have approximately 10,000 elite extra fighters joining the 50,000 soldiers, sailors, and airmen more or less already assigned to the general area. That is enough to, say, seize one or more of the Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf or to storm the Isfahan nuclear site. It is nowhere near large enough or armored enough to defeat Iran’s million-man army or to occupy significant territory in Iran or to prevent the Regime’s forces from inflicting extensive damage on our allies in the gulf.
We could bomb Iran back to the Stone Age, but if we wipe out their energy infrastructure, we would be hurting the average Iranian far more than we would the mullahs. We could continue to escalate. The president is right our military is unmatched in terms of size and equipment and morale. Surging forces is what we did in Iraq when the going got tough and in Afghanistan. In both fights escalation resulted in increased American casualties and a prolonged conflict that dragged on. Afghanistan lasted from 2001 until around 2021 when we ignominiously left in chaos. Iraq began with an enormous shock and awe campaign in 2003. It ended with a whimper in 2011. What if anything positive came out of all the sacrifice of blood and treasure?
Not much.
The United States military has been impressively reinvigorated under the leadership of Donald Trump. It is the president’s shiny new toy. He loves brandishing it and bragging that it is the best on earth, which is probably true. But do we really want to waste it on a mission that seems vague at best? Personally, the only thing that matters is whether Iran gets an atomic bomb and the missile to deliver it.
Godspeed to the negotiators who are seeking to hammer out a ceasefire. I wouldn’t bet on success. The Mideast is where optimism goes to die. The news from that unholy region always gets worse before it settles at shitty.
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